America’s hard talk needs strategic churning through fluid international affairs

Russian invasion into Ukraine has thrown India into a precarious diplomatic whirlwind. India has to wade thru complex political and strategic situations safeguarding national interests without losing its friends of varied hues and colors. India’s democratic values and principles of non-interference into others’ internal affairs needs to be redefined and reviewed. In the current scenario, Russia seems to have breached Ukrainian sovereignty, who has survived onslaught of a powerful neighbor for 33 days.  Yet Russia has a valid reason to make good its break-up and loss of a super power status 31 years ago. Even prior to the formation of USSR, the vast Euro-Asia region has a long history of many wars, occupations and dismemberments. Invasions from Europe into pre-USSR territories by Nepoleon and Hitler led to WWI and WWII.  The Bolshevik Revolution brought V.I. Lenin and R. Stalin to world stage who shaped the Communist rise to power resulting in the formation of USSR. Economic mismanagement and weak political leadership brought the great Fall in 1991-92 when USSR broke into 15 smaller nations.

Rise of Vladimir Putin as a strong and shrewd leader helping Russian pride rise up, visualizing re-union of break-up states with Russia. Russia has other fears of Ukraine joining NATO, a military conglomerate of 28 countries led by USA. Putin wouldn’t like a strong NATO ally sitting across its borders and to be a potential troubleshooter in future.

Russia has been and strong a tested friend of India at UNGA and many international fora, standing with India. Apart from being a major arm, ammunition suppliers for Indian forces, India has also signed a deal for S-400 missile shield with Russia. India-Russia friendship could be given a Four-star rating, the only weaker link being Russia-China ideological brotherhood. Both being Communist countries, Russia plays a neutral role when China attempts to nibble into Indian teritories exhibiting its expansionist ambitions.

On the other hand, the USA has been our democratic ally, a major business partner. Unhappy with India’s continuing relationship with Russia despite efforts to wean it away, the US has warned that with Russia and China getting closer together, there are doubts if Moscow will come to help New Delhi if Chinese soldiers breach the LAC again. The visiting US Deputy NSA Daleep Singh, speaking to some Indian journalists and TV channels, also said the US does not want to see an uptick in Indian imports from Russia, especially energy imports – in the wake of India set to import large quantities of Russian crude against a rupee-ruble payment. “What we would not like to see is a rapid acceleration of India’s imports from Russia as it relates to energy or any other exports that are currently being prohibited by us or by other aspects of the international sanctions regime,” Singh is quoted as saying. “China and Russia have declared a no-limits partnership, the more Russia becomes China’s partner, the less favorable it is for India, and if China breaches the LAC, do you think Russia will come to India’s help?” he has asked.

He has a point, when he says, “The truth is core principles are at stake (over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), core principles that underpin peace and security all over the world. Putin’s actions are an egregious violation of international law,” he told CNN-News18 channel. “And as I mention core principles, you cannot redraw borders by force, you cannot subjugate the will of the free people, countries have the right to set their own course, and choose their own destiny.  And that’s why US is imposing these costs on Russia,” he said. Though US does not have a consistent policy on Ukraine or NATO support in its precarious situation.

“It is time for democracies to step up, we are consulting intensely with all our democratic partners, and that’s why I’m here,” said Singh, who is said to be the architect of the Biden administration’s sanctions against Russia. His remarks come as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrives in India on a two-day visit. Singh held talks with Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla on Thursday on advancing bilateral economic relations and the strategic partnership.

Though USA’s Dy. NSA has put a valid point across, Americal policies and actions have been at variance over the last one year, especially after Jo Biden’s rise to Presidency. Its record on Afghanistan withdrawal, NATO’s dilly-dallying policies on Ukraine have raised many questions about America’s position as a dependable super power.

Keeping all situations in mind, India needs to rethink and ensure it has all the Flowers (its friends) in the Garland bound with a strong durable thread. We need to tread the path of international relations through the ongoing quagmire (or whirlwind), without letting our strategic interests compromise.                                                                                                                                                                       -Editor